Predicting the evolution of resistance to antibiotics – do simple models work? Mathematical models of bacterial evolution, particularly the evolution of antibiotic resistance, have been in use for many years. These models have informed policy decisions, inspired new treatment strategies, and guided actions to slow the spread of drug resistance in microbes. But do they truly work? Surprisingly, there is limited robust, laboratory-based evidence to support it. In this talk, I will present our efforts to evaluate whether simple models, such as the birth-death process often used to model resistance evolution, can predict the outcomes of simple, highly controlled laboratory experiments. As you may guess, the answer is “yes, but…”. This article was published on 2025-04-22
